2023 in review
A new fellowship program, an essay with interactive animated diagrams, 65,000 words of essays, over a dozen talks and interviews, and lots of reading
An end-of-year appeal
The Roots of Progress Fellowship was a great success, and we are excited to expand the program in 2024! To do this, we have a goal of raising $500k by the end of the year. View our full fundraising pitch here.
We’d make it if half the people on this list would:
If you’re considering a larger gift, see info here or get in touch.
In this update:
Full text below, or click any link above to jump to an individual post on the blog. If this digest gets cut off in your email, click the headline above to read it on the web.
2023 in review
2023 was another big year for me and The Roots of Progress.
It was a year when ROP as an organization really started to take off. Even though the org itself was formed in 2021, at first it was just a vehicle for my own intellectual work, plus a few side projects. Last year we announced our strategy and launched a search for an exec who could run it. This year she started and we launched our first program. (Note, Heike originally joined in the CEO role, but for personal and health reasons she decided to move to a VP of Programs role in June.)
As the org grows into something more than me, our communications are evolving, and probably my own personal updates will be separated from the org updates. But for now, I am going to keep doing my traditional annual review. (See past reviews: 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017)
The fellowship
This was a huge part of the year, so let me start with it.
We’re building a cultural movement to establish a new philosophy of progress. To do this, progress ideas need to be everywhere: in books and blogs, in YouTube and podcasts, in new media and old media, in newspapers and magazines, in textbooks and curricula, in art and entertainment. And for that, we need an army of writers and creatives to produce it all. The purpose of the fellowship is to develop that talent: to accelerate the careers of those intellectuals.
We launched our first program, the Blog-Building Intensive, in July, and got almost 500 applications. It was tough to choose, and we had to turn down a lot of qualified folks (so if you didn’t make it, don’t take it personally… in any case, these processes are always somewhat subjective and prone to error).
In the end, 19 fellows participated in the program, which involved writing instruction, editorial feedback, training in audience-building, and a peer group for brainstorming and feedback. They are experienced writers, many of them with bylines in mainstream media outlets. Some work for relevant think tanks, some are in academia, some have industry experience. All are writing on fascinating topics: from housing policy to nuclear power to longevity technology to the meaning of utopia.
The energy generated by getting so many great and like-minded people together was palpable, especially during the in-person closing event in San Francisco. The fellows said that the program “raised my ambition,” helped them “envision a career as a public intellectual,” and made them feel “empowered to take writing (and what it can achieve) seriously.” Several of them launched Substacks under their own name and brand for the first time, having previously written only for other publications or for their employers. And on average, they wrote more than twice as much during the intensive as they had earlier in the year. By popular demand, we’re keeping the weekly peer group call going indefinitely.
Huge thanks and congrats to Heike Larson for designing, launching, and running this program! It would never have happened without her. And a huge thanks as well to all the fellows for their enthusiastic participation.
This program greatly deserves to be continued and expanded next year, and we’re fundraising now to do that. View our full pitch and then see how to support us.
Writing
I wrote 35 essays for the blog this year (including this one), totalling over 65k words—a new record (which surprised me, since it feels like I’ve been so distracted away from research and writing this year by the fellowship and fundraising).
My longest, most in-depth pieces were:
What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came? A review of The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective, by Robert Allen
Can submarines swim? In which I demystify artificial intelligence
If you wish to make an apple pie, you must first become dictator of the universe, or: will AI inevitably seek power?
Who regulates the regulators? Arguing that we need to go beyond the review-and-approval paradigm
Other than that, my most popular pieces (by views on the blog and upvotes on other forums) were:
Why no Roman Industrial Revolution? You can’t leapfrog the spinning wheel to get to the spinning mule
Why didn’t we get the four-hour workday? Or the two-hour day, or the sixteen-hour week, or other predictions
The Commission for Stopping Further Improvements: a letter of note from Isambard K. Brunel, civil engineer. How to “embarrass and shackle the progress of improvement tomorrow by recording and registering as law the prejudices or errors of today”
How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard. “Science would become something like a parlor game. There would be fashions. Those who followed the fashion would get grants”
One of my favorite underrated pieces from this year:
The spiritual benefits of material progress. What did the Industrial Revolution do to the human soul?
Several of this year’s essays were “what I’ve been reading,” which I made into a quasi-monthly feature; see the reading update below.
I also put out 35 issues of the “links digest”, on a schedule which varied from weekly to monthly. In total I recommended well over 1,000 links and included 139 charts and images.
Overall I had 134k visitors to rootsofprogress.org, and my email newsletter grew more than 2.4x, to over 18k subscribers.
Book project
My biggest disappointment of 2023 has been getting very little time to work on my book. The process of finding the right publisher has taken much longer than I expected. I may simply begin serializing the book via my newsletter in 2024. In any case, devoting serious time to the book is going to be a top goal for next year.
In what little time I did devote to the manuscript itself, I’ve been working on the chapter on agriculture. I wrote up some of what I’ve learned on that topic in the July–August, September, and October reading updates.
Talks and interviews
I de-prioritized speaking in 2023, but I still gave about a dozen published talks and interviews. A couple of my favorites were:
Remember the Past to Build the Future, actually from Foresight Institute’s Vision Weekend 2022, but the recording was published in January
A talk to the Instituto Millenium in Brazil, with about 80 people attending live. This was my talk “Toward a New Philosophy of Progress” that I have given before
Infinite Loops podcast with Jim O’Shaughnessy (YouTube, show page)
See all my published talks and interviews here.
I also spoke in several private venues, including:
The Santa Fe Institute, at a workshop on “accelerating science.” I wrote up the talk as an essay here
The Takshashila Institute in Bangalore. I spoke first in person to a group of a couple dozen of their scholars, and later addressed over 200 students taking their Graduate Certificate in Public Policy via Zoom
Stripe, where I gave an internal tech talk. I gave a condensed version of the talk at Foresight Vision Weekend 2023, and hope to write it up soon as an essay
An Astral Codex Ten / LessWrong meetup in Bangalore, where I discussed progress with some 30 or 40 attendees
Finally, I was briefly quoted in this year-end review in the Christian Science Monitor.
Events
I hosted several private dinner/reception events this year in cities including San Francisco, New York, Boston, and DC, mostly for fundraising. If you have the potential to donate $10k or more and are interested in (free, invite-only) events in your area, let me know who you are and what area you’re in.
The origins of steam power
A very fun and cool project I got to be involved in this year was an essay on the pre-history of the steam engine, with interactive animated diagrams. Anton Howes did the research and wrote the text, Matt Brown (Extraordinary Facility) created the diagrams, and I played editor and publisher. This project was generously sponsored by The Institute (where I am a fellow).
Here are some animated previews, read the full essay for the complete interactive experience:
Social media
2023 has been, er, quite a year for social media platforms. Twitter (I refuse to call it “X”) is still where I have the biggest audience—over 31k, up more than 20% this year—and so it’s still my primary platform. But it is being challenged by up-and-coming platforms, where I am also investing. Follow me on Facebook’s Threads and the blockchain-based Farcaster (and, if you like, on LinkedIn, Bluesky, and Substack Notes).
My top tweets/threads of the year:
This still blows my mind: in the late 1800s, ~25% of bridges built just collapsed
We eradicated smallpox for less than it costs to build one mile of subway today in NYC
Norway can build a tunnel for lower cost than it takes Britain just to do the planning application for one. And many other damning facts in this thread
The Progress Forum
The Progress Forum went through a quiet period in the middle of the year, but has become much more active in recent months, especially with the ROP fellows cross-posting their essays and drafts. Some of the year’s top posts:
We also did some AMAs earlier in the year, including:
Subscribe to the Progress Forum Digest to get semi-regular updates with top posts.
Reading
This year I started writing up my reading on a quasi-monthly basis (check out the updates for November, October, September, July–August, June, May, April, March). So I’ll make this a briefer summary of the highlights, looking back on the year. Starting with books:
One of my goals is to read basically every major book about the Industrial Revolution, the origins of modern economic growth, the rise of the West, or similar themes. Contributions to that this year included:
Joel Mokyr, The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress (1990). I commented on this in the September and October updates
Thomas Ashton, The Industrial Revolution, 1760–1830 (1948). See my highlights here
Robert Allen, The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective (2009). See my review here
Lynn White, Medieval Technology and Social Change (1962). I commented on this in the October and November updates
A random book I appreciated this year was Ester Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure (1965), see the July–August update.
Another theme through my reading this year was historical fears about technology. Some highlights:
Samuel Butler, “Darwin Among the Machines“ (1863):
… we are ourselves creating our own successors… we are daily giving them greater power and supplying by all sorts of ingenious contrivances that self-regulating, self-acting power which will be to them what intellect has been to the human race. In the course of ages we shall find ourselves the inferior race…. that the time will come when the machines will hold the real supremacy over the world and its inhabitants is what no person of a truly philosophic mind can for a moment question…. Our opinion is that war to the death should be instantly proclaimed against them.
See also Butler’s novel Erewhon, mentioned below under fiction.
J. B. S. Haldane, “Daedalus: or, Science and the Future“ (1923):
Has mankind released from the womb of matter a Demogorgon which is already beginning to turn against him, and may at any moment hurl him into the bottomless void?
A reply to Haldane by Bertrand Russell, “Icarus: or, the Future of Science“ (1924):
Science has increased man’s control over nature, and might therefore be supposed likely to increase his happiness and well-being. This would be the case if men were rational, but in fact they are bundles of passions and instincts…. The human instincts of power and rivalry, like the dog’s wolfish appetite, will need to be artificially curbed, if industrialism is to succeed.
Alan Turing, “Intelligent Machinery, A Heretical Theory“ (1951) is mostly about the possibility of AI, but echoes Butler’s fears:
… it seems probable that once the machine thinking method had started, it would not take long to outstrip our feeble powers…. At some stage therefore we should have to expect the machines to take control, in the way that is mentioned in Samuel Butler’s Erewhon.
Vernor Vinge, “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era“ (1993). Vinge speculates that when greater-than-human intelligence is created, it will cause “change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth,” and he sees no hope for us to control it or to confine it:
Any intelligent machine of the sort he describes would not be humankind’s “tool”—any more than humans are the tools of rabbits, robins, or chimpanzees.
Other fun historical pieces:
“Trial of locomotive carriages“ (1829), a contemporary newspaper account of the Rainhill trials
John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren“ (1930)
Admiral Hyman Rickover, the “Paper Reactor” memo (1953)
I notice a few bloggers whose essays recurred often in my reading updates and links digests. I especially appreciated discovering Jacob Steinhardt, who has written some very sensible things on AI risk:
More Is Different for AI: “When thinking about safety risks from ML, there are two common approaches, which I’ll call the Engineering approach and the Philosophy approach… people who strongly subscribe to the Engineering worldview tend to think of Philosophy as fundamentally confused and ungrounded, while those who strongly subscribe to Philosophy think of most Engineering work as misguided and orthogonal (at best) to the long-term safety of ML”
Complex Systems are Hard to Control: “deep neural networks are complex adaptive systems, which raises new control difficulties that are not addressed by the standard engineering ideas of reliability, modularity, and redundancy”
Emergent Deception and Emergent Optimization: “it seems reasonably likely … that both emergent deception and emergent optimization will lead to reward hacking in future models. To contend with this, we should be on the lookout for deception and planning in models today, as well as pursuing fixes such as making language models more honest … and better understanding learned optimizers”
Thought Experiments Provide a Third Anchor, on the value of philosophical thought experiments for understanding AI risk
What will GPT-2030 look like? It “will likely be superhuman at various specific tasks, including coding, hacking, and math, and potentially protein design” and “will be trained on additional modalities beyond text and images, possibly including counterintuitive modalities such as molecular structures, network traffic, low-level machine code, astronomical images, and brain scans”
Earlier, Steinhardt also wrote “Beyond Bayesians and Frequentists“ (2012) and “A Fervent Defense of Frequentist Statistics“ (2014).
Another blogger I cited often was Kevin Kelly:
“The Unabomber Was Right“ (2009), kind of a clickbait title but very worth reading
“Protopia” (2011): “I have not met a utopia I would even want to live in…. I think our destination is neither utopia nor dystopia nor status quo, but protopia. Protopia is a state that is better than today than yesterday, although it might be only a little better”
“Construction is a sign of life” (2022): “when I encounter cranes shooting up from a street, I feel reassured that this place is alive and in good health”
“The Shirky Principle“ (2010): “Institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution”
And then there was Arnold Kling:
“The Two Forms of Social Order“ (2015), a summary of Violence and Social Orders
“State, Clan, and Liberty“ (2013), a review of Mark Weiner’s The Rule of the Clan
“Peter Thiel on Child Care and GDP,” on GDP as a measure of economic activity; plus “What Should GDP Measure?,” a followup on what GDP is and is not
“Crisis of Abundance,” claiming that we over-consume medical services in the US
Finally, I’ll briefly mention a few novels, mostly on themes of AI and/or x-risk:
Ian Tregillis, The Alchemy Wars trilogy. My clear favorite of the year, recommended. An alternate history where Huygens invents intelligent robots in the late 1600s; centuries later, the Dutch rule the world on the backs of robot slaves
Samuel Butler, Erewhon (1872). A satire covering many topics, but most famous for its predictions that machines would eventually take over the world; see the quote from Butler above
Voltaire, Candide (1759), a famous satirical novel. On its own it is simply bizarre; but it makes more sense in the context of 18th-century theodicy debates (c.f. Leibniz and the Lisbon earthquake). Thanks to Alan Charles Kors for his exegesis and to Lisa VanDamme for orgazining those discussions
Robert Heinlein, The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress (1966). In 2076, the Moon is a penal colony, and the inhabitants stage a libertarian revolt with the help of an AI. Fun read, but I frankly don’t get why Heinlein is so famous, maybe I should read something else of his?
Dennis Taylor, We Are Legion (We Are Bob) (2017). A guy named Bob gets turned into a sentient von Neumann probe and sent out to colonize the galaxy. Cool concept and fun read, not super-well written, I finished the first book but not super-motivated to finish the series
Lots of other sci-fi I sampled, had a hard time getting into, might or might not return to: Iain Banks’s Culture series, The Dispossessed, Diaspora
Over the holiday, I read Kurt Vonnegut, Cat’s Cradle (1963). A scientist develops a technology that has the potential to destroy the world: a form of ice that is stable at high temperatures and that crystallizes any water it touches into the same form. An interesting cultural touchpoint for issues of existential risk, but the novel itself is philosophically and aesthetically nihilistic, and I hated it
By the way, I have updated my biblography, bringing the total to 100 books, now organized into categories, starting with “top picks” if you just want a handful of highlights. I’m still very behind in updating it and need to add dozens of books… maybe in 2024.
Thank you
As always, I want to end the year on a note of gratitude. The last four years have been some of the most fulfilling and meaningful of my life, and I can only do what I do because I have an audience who cares. Thanks for reading, for sharing, for commenting, even for criticizing. Happy New Year, and here’s to progress in 2024.
Original post: https://rootsofprogress.org/2023-in-review
Links digest, 2023-12-29: Rayleigh's oil drop experiment and more
Somewhat delayed owing to the holidays. As always, to follow news and announcements in a more timely fashion, follow me on Twitter, Threads, or Farcaster.
From the Roots of Progress fellows
“Yes, And” In My Backyard: Is it time for urbanists to embrace commercial zoning reform? (by @RyanPuzycki)
(Also lots more that I haven’t gotten around to posting, will catch up soon)
Opportunities
Applications for Mercatus fellowships are now open. “Apply to learn about & discuss political economy with fellows from a wide variety of disciplines. We’ll discuss institutions, incentives, knowledge, market processes, governance, & much more” (@NathanPGoodman)
Our World in Data is hiring a Senior Full-stack Engineer. Apply by Sunday, Jan 14 (via @OurWorldInData)
Announcements
Asimov Press is “a new publishing venture that features writing about biology… Our magazine and books will cover everything from biosecurity to vaccine development & the long arc of progress in genetic engineering” (via @NikoMcCarty)
Ideas Matter announces its first cohort. “Our 14 fellows represent 6 different countries and will spend 8 weeks writing about big ideas in biology. Their work spans everything from animal welfare to synthetic biology and biodefense” (@IdeasFellows)
A new ARIA opportunity space: “Brain disorders are a huge challenge to society and we need a new suite of tools to precisely interface with the human brain at scale” (@JacquesCarolan)
“A new RNA targeting CRISPR enzyme paired with a convolutional neural network (CNN) model predicting highly efficient guide RNA sequences for transcriptome engineering” from @arcinstitute
A16Z announces they will, “for the first time, get involved with politics by supporting candidates who align with our vision and values specifically for technology…. We are non-partisan, one issue voters: If a candidate supports an optimistic technology-enabled future, we are for them. If they want to choke off important technologies, we are against them.” Specific beliefs include: “Artificial Intelligence has the potential to uplift all of humanity to an unprecedented quality of living and must not be choked off in its infancy. We can do this by requiring that AI behaves within the law and rules of our society without regulating math, FLOPs, methods of R&D, and other misguided ideas” (via @bhorowitz)
The African School of Economics is expanding to Zanzibar, “launching its first East African location with the support of Charter Cities Institute” (via @CCIdotCity). “Super excited for this project” says @MarkLutter
AI
Answer.ai is “a new kind of R&D lab” from Jeremy Howard and Eric Ries with $10M in funding (via @jeremyphoward)
OpenAI announces partnership to include real-time information from various news sources in ChatGPT. “ChatGPT’s answers to user queries will include attribution and links to full articles for transparency and further information” (via @OpenAI)
Related, Channel1 is a new AI news venture with virtual anchors: “Watch the showcase episode of our upcoming news network now” (@channel1_ai)
Bots beating humans at captchas. But Gmail predictive AI still has a ways to go
AI safety
“Seven practices for keeping increasingly agentic AI systems safe and accountable as they become more common and more capable” (@OpenAI). They are also offering $10M in grants for “technical research towards the alignment and safety of superhuman AI systems,” apply by Feb 18 (via @leopoldasch)
How We Can Have AI Progress Without Sacrificing Safety or Democracy: Yoshua Bengio and Daniel Privitera propose a “Beneficial AI Roadmap” in TIME Magazine (via @privitera_)
Queries
Why did we give up on a cure for the common cold? (@Ben_Reinhardt)
Social
“Without x-rays, high-powered microscopes, and fancy research equipment.. How would you figure out the size of a single molecule? Lord Rayleigh did it way back in 1890, using little more than oil, water, and a pen”: good thread from @NikoMcCarty
“How do you create the sharpest thing in the world? And why would you do it?” Thread from @Jordan_W_Taylor
“SI seconds on Earth are slower because of relativity, so there are time standards for space stuff (TCB, TGC) that use faster SI seconds than UTC/Unix time” (via XKCD)
“With a nuclear-reactor powered ship, there’s few reasons why you don’t push for top speed all the time. Basically the same running costs, only a little bit extra fuel, while delivering cargo 50% faster” (via @ToughSf)
Why Our World in Data does what they do: “The starting point for all our work is a simple question: What do we need to know to make the world a better place?” Thread from @MaxCRoser
Why are pedestrian deaths increasing in the US? NYT had an article and interactive on this that spurred some interesting threads from @InlandCaGuy and @Chris_Said
Quotes
From Alan Kay’s Dynabook paper (via @michael_nielsen via @D_R_Goodwin):
Our project is very sympathetic to the latter view. Where some people measure progress in answers-right/test or tests-passed/year, we are more interested in “Sistine-Chapel-Ceilings/Lifetime”. This is not to say that skill achievement is de-emphasized. “Sistine-Chapel-Cellings” are not gotten without healthy application of both dreaming and great skill at painting those dreams. As bystander L. d. Vinci remarked, “Where the spirit does not work with the hand, there is no art”. Papert has pointed out that people will willingly and joyfully spend thousands of hours of highly physical and mental effort in order to perfect a sport (such as skiing) that they are involved in. Obviously school and learning have not been made interesting to children, nor has a way to get immediate enjoyment from practicing intellectual skills generally appeared.
Tolstoy on the influence of Lincoln in his own time (via @eigenrobot):
Once while travelling in the Caucasus I happened to be the guest of a Caucasian chief of the Circassians, who, living far away from civilized life in the mountains, had but a fragmentary and childish comprehension of the world and its history. The fingers of civilization had never reached him nor his tribe, and all life beyond his native valleys was a dark mystery. Being a Mussulman he was naturally opposed to all ideas of progress and education.
I was received with the usual Oriental hospitality and after our meal was asked by my host to tell him something of my life. Yielding to his request I began to tell him of my profession, of the development of our industries and inventions and of the schools. He listened to everything with indifference, but when I began to tell about the great statesmen and the great generals of the world he seemed at once to become very much interested.
“Wait a moment,” he interrupted, after I had talked a few minutes. “I want all my neighbors and my sons to listen to you. I will call them immediately.”
He soon returned with a score of wild looking riders and asked me politely to continue. It was indeed a solemn moment when those sons of the wilderness sat around me on the floor and gazed at me as if hungering for knowledge. I spoke at first of our Czars and of their victories; then I spoke of the foreign rulers and of some of the greatest military leaders. My talk seemed to impress them deeply. The story of Napoleon was so interesting to them that I had to tell them every detail, as, for instance, how his hands looked, how tall he was, who made his guns and pistols and the color of his horse. It was very difficult to satisfy them and to meet their point of view, but I did my best. When I declared that I had finished my talk, my host, a gray-bearded, tall rider, rose, lifted his hand and said very gravely:
“But you have not told us a syllable about the greatest general and greatest ruler of the world. We want to know something about him. He was a hero. He spoke with a voice of thunder; he laughed like the sunrise and his deeds were strong as the rock and as sweet as the fragrance of roses. The angels appeared to his mother and predicted that the son whom she would conceive would become the greatest the stars had ever seen. He was so great that he even forgave the crimes of his greatest enemies and shook brotherly hands with those who had plotted against his life. His name was Lincoln and the country in which he lived is called America, which is so far away that if a youth should journey to reach it he would be an old man when he arrived. Tell us of that man.”
“Tell us, please, and we will present you with the best horse of our stock,” shouted the others.
I looked at them and saw their faces all aglow, while their eyes were burning. I saw that those rude barbarians were really interested in a man whose name and deeds had already become a legend. I told them of Lincoln and his wisdom, of his home life and youth. They asked me ten questions to one which I was able to answer. They wanted to know all about his habits, his influence upon the people and his physical strength. But they were very astonished to hear that Lincoln made a sorry figure on a horse and that he lived such a simple life.
“Tell us why he was killed,” one of them said.
I had to tell everything. After all my knowledge of Lincoln was exhausted they seemed to be satisfied. I can hardly forget the great enthusiasm which they expressed in their wild thanks and desire to get a picture of the great American hero. I said that I probably could secure one from my friend in the nearest town, and this seemed to give them great pleasure.
The next morning when I left the chief a wonderful Arabian horse was brought me as a present for my marvelous story, and our farewell was very impressive.
One of the riders agreed to accompany me to the town and get the promised picture, which I was now bound to secure at any price. I was successful in getting a large photograph from my friend, and I handed it to the man with my greetings to his associates. It was interesting to witness the gravity of his face and the trembling of his hands when he received my present. He gazed for several minutes silently, like one in a reverent prayer; his eyes filled with tears. He was deeply touched and I asked him why he became so sad. After pondering my question for a few moments he replied:
“I am sad because I feel sorry that he had to die by the hand of a villain. Don’t you find, judging from his picture, that his eyes are full of tears and that his lips are sad with a secret sorrow?”
Like all Orientals, he spoke in a poetical way and left me with many deep bows.
This little incident proves how largely the name of Lincoln is worshipped throughout the world and how legendary his personality has become.
Charts
How food becomes cheaper (via @Marian_L_Tupy)
Aesthetics
Concorde going Mach 2 to keep up with the shadow of the 1973 solar eclipse (via @Liv_Boeree). The provenance of this photo is unclear but the flight did happen:
The kiss of the oceans (1915). “Wonderful vintage map celebrates the opening of the Panama Canal” (@simongerman600)
Very impressive photo of a raven by Ed Yong:
Original post: https://rootsofprogress.org/links-digest-2023-12-29
“ , but I frankly don’t get why Heinlein is so famous,”
You need to grok, man!
Kudos on a great year, Jason! May 2024 be even better, and may all the work that you and the RoP orbit has been doing for years keep compounding in impact -- it is much needed! Cheers 💚 🥃