This essay brings to mind an article from the New Yorker that I read a few years ago about flying cars. As I child, I thought we would have flying cars by now, but we still don't have them. Where are they? From that article, I was struck by the idea that much of innovation and development of new "stuff" has associated risk and as a society, we have grown less and less risk tolerant.
For example, flying cars that exist and are being developed today have lower risk of death or injury than human driven cars. With a cursory search I find one fatality (from a self converted Pinto) and a few cases of flying car crash where the drivers survive, even walk away unharmed. Yet even one fatality from a company dedicated to building flying cars could end the experiment!
I see this in medicine too. People are afraid of radiation from an xray. And while they aren't wrong, they also get that same amount of radiation from an airplane flight but they will still fly. And don't even get me started on vaccines...
I think you're right that if we begin to change the narrative of how we talk about progress and solutions, we could start to see more progress!
I was fascinated by article I read in the New Yorker mostly because despite all of the regulations and risk aversion there are several companies working on flying cars and they've had to solve for many possible contingencies but many have done so. There are even some companies making self driving flying cars (since self driving technology is actually safer). I think we will see them become more common in our life times!
I like this, but I wonder about the use of the word “solutionism”. In a lot of contexts, “solution” is a word that means to indicate that you do it, and then you’re done, and there is no more problem. I think this is what is advertised with “software solutions”, or in the aisle of grocery stores that I’ve seen labeled “meal solutions”. Whereas I think here, it’s better to emphasize that progress is an ongoing process, and that addressing one problem doesn’t mean the problem is done (which you emphasize at various points throughout).
This was a great piece Jason! I too enjoyed the case studies. You focused on drugs in this piece, but I imagine food has had a similar path? I’m thinking that we have food safety testing and nutrition labels now, for example.
Thank you for writing this! I think the point you are making is important, and the in-depth examples were immensely useful in making that point. I will certainly remember those examples for my own thoughts and conversations about this and similar topics! :)
The history part here is fantastic. I love learning about the history of technology within a thematic framework.
But the interest of the argument is somewhat impaired by the obviousness of the larger takeaways. I suppose there are those who would resist the idea that electricity is progress, but innovations to prevent electrical fires are also progress. But they're so misguided, and I think rather rare, that refuting them doesn't seem very urgent.
I listen to a piece like this seeking to discern how to maximize the rate of progress, not to figure out whether it's good or what it means. And I think it's helpful for that purpose, to some extent. But it's less helpful than it might be, because you're more interested in establishing some large, obvious takeaways, rather than navigating trade-offs or probing edge cases.
Still a fan, to be sure! But I'm less interested in the "techno-humanist manifesto" aspect of it, which seems almost too unproblematic to be interesting, than in the detailed case studies, so lucidly narrated.
This essay brings to mind an article from the New Yorker that I read a few years ago about flying cars. As I child, I thought we would have flying cars by now, but we still don't have them. Where are they? From that article, I was struck by the idea that much of innovation and development of new "stuff" has associated risk and as a society, we have grown less and less risk tolerant.
For example, flying cars that exist and are being developed today have lower risk of death or injury than human driven cars. With a cursory search I find one fatality (from a self converted Pinto) and a few cases of flying car crash where the drivers survive, even walk away unharmed. Yet even one fatality from a company dedicated to building flying cars could end the experiment!
I see this in medicine too. People are afraid of radiation from an xray. And while they aren't wrong, they also get that same amount of radiation from an airplane flight but they will still fly. And don't even get me started on vaccines...
I think you're right that if we begin to change the narrative of how we talk about progress and solutions, we could start to see more progress!
Re, “where is my flying car?”—my review of a book by that title: https://blog.rootsofprogress.org/where-is-my-flying-car
I was fascinated by article I read in the New Yorker mostly because despite all of the regulations and risk aversion there are several companies working on flying cars and they've had to solve for many possible contingencies but many have done so. There are even some companies making self driving flying cars (since self driving technology is actually safer). I think we will see them become more common in our life times!
I LOVE Solutionism. It expresses everything I strive to be about. I'm promoting it enthusiastically here:
https://matthewboulton.substack.com/p/solutionism-and-objective-optimism
I like this, but I wonder about the use of the word “solutionism”. In a lot of contexts, “solution” is a word that means to indicate that you do it, and then you’re done, and there is no more problem. I think this is what is advertised with “software solutions”, or in the aisle of grocery stores that I’ve seen labeled “meal solutions”. Whereas I think here, it’s better to emphasize that progress is an ongoing process, and that addressing one problem doesn’t mean the problem is done (which you emphasize at various points throughout).
Yes, even a problem is solved, there's always a new problem to solve next. Sometimes a problem created by the previous solution
This was a great piece Jason! I too enjoyed the case studies. You focused on drugs in this piece, but I imagine food has had a similar path? I’m thinking that we have food safety testing and nutrition labels now, for example.
Yes, I'm sure there are many such stories.
Thank you for writing this! I think the point you are making is important, and the in-depth examples were immensely useful in making that point. I will certainly remember those examples for my own thoughts and conversations about this and similar topics! :)
The history part here is fantastic. I love learning about the history of technology within a thematic framework.
But the interest of the argument is somewhat impaired by the obviousness of the larger takeaways. I suppose there are those who would resist the idea that electricity is progress, but innovations to prevent electrical fires are also progress. But they're so misguided, and I think rather rare, that refuting them doesn't seem very urgent.
I listen to a piece like this seeking to discern how to maximize the rate of progress, not to figure out whether it's good or what it means. And I think it's helpful for that purpose, to some extent. But it's less helpful than it might be, because you're more interested in establishing some large, obvious takeaways, rather than navigating trade-offs or probing edge cases.
Still a fan, to be sure! But I'm less interested in the "techno-humanist manifesto" aspect of it, which seems almost too unproblematic to be interesting, than in the detailed case studies, so lucidly narrated.